Rick Santorum gains steam
By Scott Rasmussen
In a campaign defined by Republican reluctance to embrace Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum has emerged as the latest not-Romney candidate to surge ahead. While it’s impossible to predict what will happen in this volatile election season, the data suggests that Santorum might be more of a challenge for Romney than earlier flavors of the month.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Santorum leads Romney by 12 points, 39 percent to 27 percent. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are far behind. In and of itself, that’s nothing new. The man from Massachusetts has at times trailed Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Gingrich.
What is new are the numbers from a head-to-head matchup with no other candidates in the race. Santorum leads Romney 55 percent to 34 percent. None of the earlier Romney alternatives could manage better than a toss-up in such a contest.
Those numbers show that Santorum picks up 16 points when other candidates drop out. Romney adds just seven points to his column. Santorum makes huge gains among conservative voters when others drop out of the race. Among non-conservatives, Santorum and Romney gain roughly equal amounts. For the first time the numbers show that if one of Romney’s challengers drops out, the other challenger will overwhelmingly benefit. Gingrich supporters, by a three-to-one margin, would vote for Santorum over Romney if that was the final choice.
There is a huge passion gap favoring Santorum. Forty percent of Republican primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Santorum. Just 18 percent are that enthusiastic about Romney.
The one thing keeping Romney afloat is that he is still perceived as the strongest general election candidate. But to survive the Santorum challenge, Romney needs to give primary voters something more, something positive. GOP voters want a reason to vote for him beyond the fact that he has the most money and the best team.
Team Romney needs to acknowledge that Republican voters are not only strongly opposed to President Barack Obama’s agenda but that they don’t think much of Washington Republicans, either. They want a president who would shake up the good-old-boy network in Washington rather than join it.
Santorum must convince Republican voters that he can win in November. Electability is still the most important factor for Republican voters. If Santorum can neutralize the electability argument, he could become Romney’s worst nightmare.
The next primaries are slated for Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan. If Romney wins both states, the race will probably be over. However, if Santorum can pull off a victory that day, he will be far more than the latest flavor of the month.
Scott Rasmussen is the founder and CEO of Rasmussen Reports and its polling
organization.
Santroum is not the flavor of the week he will beat this RINO fraud Mitt romney once and for all I am tired of hearing about the establishment being behind Romney
My comments on this article in todays Boston Herald
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